Mp_cn812 Weekly Cotton Market Review May 16, 2025 Spot quotations averaged 162 points lower than the previous week, according to the USDA, Agricultural Marketing Service�s Cotton and Tobacco Program. Quotations for the base quality of cotton (color 41, leaf 4, staple 34, mike 35-36 and 43-49, strength 27.0 - 28.9, and uniformity 81.0 - 81.9) in the seven designated markets averaged 63.21 cents per pound for the week ending Thursday, May 15, 2025. The weekly average was down from 64.83 cents last week and from 68.24 cents reported the corresponding period a year ago. Daily average quotations ranged from a high of 63.74 cents on Monday, May 12 to a low of 62.57 cents on Thursday, May 15. Spot transactions reported in the Daily Spot Cotton Quotations for the week ended May 15 totaled 4,612 bales. This compares to 8,945 reported last week and 1,087 bales reported the corresponding week a year ago. Total spot transactions for the season were 951,631 bales compared to 817,207 bales the corresponding week a year ago. The ICE July settlement price ended the week at 65.43 cents, compared to 66.69 cents last week. Southeastern Markets Regional Summary Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies and offerings were light. Demand was moderate. Average local spot prices were lower. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Partly cloudy skies were observed across the lower Southeast during much of the period. Daytime high temperatures were mostly in the 80s. Nighttime lows were in the 60s and 70s. Widespread rainfall was received over the weekend and early in the week. Precipitation totals measured from one to four inches, with heavier accumulations of up to eight inches recorded in localized areas. Improvements in droughty conditions were observed across the region with increased streamflow and soil moisture data recorded. Fieldwork advanced as dry conditions allowed but planting was slightly behind the five-year average in most areas, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service. Sunny to partly cloudy conditions prevailed across the upper Southeast during the period. Daytime high temperatures were in the 70s and 80s with nighttime lows in the 60s and 70s. Widespread showers brought moisture to areas throughout the Carolinas and Virginia during the week. Precipitation totals measured one to four inches. Improvements to severe drought were made along the Carolina coast and abnormal dryness were improved across the region, according to the U.S. Drought Monitor. The wet weather interrupted fieldwork and planting activity, which was slightly behind the five-year average in the Carolinas, but slightly ahead in Virginia. Textile Mill Domestic mill buyers inquired for a moderate volume of color 41, leaf 4 and better, and staple 34 and longer for third and fourth quarter 2025 delivery. No sales were reported. The undertone from mill buyers remained cautious. Raw cotton demand was balanced with yarn orders. Demand through export channels was moderate. Agents throughout the Far East inquired for any discounted styles of cotton. Trading � No trading activity was reported. South Central Markets Regional Summary North Delta Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies of available cotton were light. Demand was very light. Average local spot prices were lower. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. No forward contracting was reported. Daytime high temperatures were in the 70s. Overnight low temperatures were in the 50s to 60s. Mostly cloudy skies brought scattered thunderstorms to several cotton growing areas. Accumulated precipitation totals measured from trace amounts to two and one-half inches of moisture. According to the National Weather Service, flood warnings continued in parts of Southeastern and Southwestern Arkansas. Excessive runoff impacted the variance of topsoil supplements. Local experts reported inclement weather slowed cotton emergence. In western Tennessee, cotton planting was underway. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service�s Crop Progress report released on May 5, planting advanced to 13 percent in Arkansas, 17 in Missouri, and 29 percent in Tennessee. Saturated soils hindered planting in a few locales, but high wind gusts assisted in drying fields. Fertilizer applications were accomplished between rains where soils were firm enough to support equipment. Virtual and in-person industry meetings were being planned and attended at state and national levels. South Delta Trading of spot cotton and CCC-loan equities was inactive. Supplies of available cotton were light. Demand was very light. Average local spot prices were lower. There was no interest in forward contracting. Mostly cloudy conditions with moderate precipitation dominated the weather pattern throughout the reporting period. Up to three inches of moisture was reported in most areas. Daytime high temperatures were in the 70s to 80s. Overnight low temperatures were in the 50s to 60s. River flood warnings remained in effect at many locales. Saturated soils hindered outdoor activities in a few areas throughout the week, but high temperatures and gusty winds helped dry soils. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service�s Crop Progress report released on May 5, cotton planting was at 18 percent in Louisiana and Mississippi. Producers closely monitored the cost of inputs and estimated income before planting. Virtual and in-person industry meetings were being planned and attended at state and national levels. Trading North Delta � No trading activity was reported. South Delta � No trading activity was reported. Southwestern Markets Regional Summary East Texas-South Texas Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies and producer offerings were light. Demand was light. Average local spot prices were lower. Producer interest in forward contracting was light. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Foreign mill inquiries were light. Dreary and rainy conditions gave way to dry, mild weather early in the week. Daytime high temperatures in the upper 70s climbed into the high 90s and peaked in the triple digits in areas of central Texas. Light accumulations of precipitation were reported. Local experts reported that overly saturated soils from excessive rain slowed plant growth in the Brazos River Bottoms. A period of sunshine and warm temperatures is needed to build heat units and help stands develop. Herbicides and pesticides were applied to fields during the reporting period. Planting continued in areas of central Texas. Some replanting is expected in areas of the Blackland Prairies impacted by hail damage last week. In South Texas, humid and windy conditions persisted during the period. Daytime high temperatures in the upper 80s climbed into the upper 90s in the lower Rio Grande Valley (RGV). Nighttime low temperatures in the low 60s warmed into the upper 70s. No rainfall was reported. As temperatures warm up, the heat will be beneficial to push plant development, but additional rain will be needed as water demands increase. Stand progression in the Coastal Bend and lower RGV ranged from squaring to the early stages of blooming in some fields. Damage to stands was reported from last week�s hailstorm in areas of the Coastal Bend. Herbicides and pesticide treatments were applied. West Texas-Kansas-Oklahoma Spot cotton trading was active. Supplies and producer offerings were light. Demand was light. Average local spot prices were lower. Producer interest in forward contracting was light. Trading of CCC-loan equities was inactive. Foreign mill inquiries were light. In Texas, mainly sunny and windy conditions characterized the weather pattern with daytime temperatures in the low 70s to low 100s and overnight lows in the 40s to 70s. Occasionally the wind gusted over 50 miles per hour that caused blowing dust. Planting was initiated and expanded quickly across the region under optimal sowing conditions. Counties in the Northern High Plains final planting date for crop insurance approaches on May 31. Producers worked long hours sowing seed. Although recent rainfall was beneficial and welcomed, more will be needed to take this crop to harvest. In Kansas, daytime temperatures were in the upper 70s to upper 90s, and overnight lows were in the 40s to 70s. Producers were eager to begin sowing but some waited for warmer soil temperatures to ensure germination. Industry sources expect the same number of acres planted as last year, or a slight increase. In Oklahoma, planting expanded with daytime temperatures in the upper 70s to upper 90s, and overnight lows in the 50s to 60s. Sunny conditions returned following recent rainfall and soil temperatures warmed enough for sowing to commence. Southwestern Markets Regional Summary Trading East Texas/South Texas � No trading activity reported. West Texas, Kansas & Oklahoma � In Texas, a lot containing a light volume of color 21 and 31, leaf 4 and better, staple 34, mike 29-34, strength 25-29, and uniformity 76-79 sold for around 56.50 cents per pound, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid). � A lot containing a light volume of 2023-crop cotton color 21 and 31, leaf 2 to 5, staple 36, mike 33-49, strength 26-32, uniformity 77-80, and 25 percent extraneous matter traded for around 48.50 cents, same terms as above. � In Kansas, a mixed lot containing a moderate volume of color 32-54, leaf 3 to 8, staple 36 and 37, mike 26-43, strength 26-32, uniformity 77-83, and 75 percent extraneous matter traded for around 55.25 cents, same terms as above. � In Oklahoma, even-running lots containing a heavy volume of color 11 and 21, leaf 3 and better, staple 36-38, mike 38-47, strength 29-34, and uniformity 80-83 sold for around 68.75 to 69.00 cents, same terms as above. Western Markets Regional Summary Desert Southwest (DSW) Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies and producer offerings were light. Demand was light. Producer interest in forward contracting was light. Average local prices were lower. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Foreign mill inquiries were light. In Arizona, weather conditions were mostly sunny. Daytime high temperatures began in the 80s and climbed into the low 110s. Overnight lows were in the 50s to 70s. No rainfall was recorded during the period. A red flag warning was issued by the National Weather Service for winds exceeding 40 miles per hour (mph) that increased the potential for critical fire dangers. Cotton planting neared completion in Arizona. The crop progressed in Yuma. According to the National Agricultural Statistics Service�s (NASS) Arizona Crop Progress report released on May 12, cotton planted advanced to 85 percent, which is ahead of the five-year average of 82 percent. Cotton condition was rated mostly good to excellent, with only 2 percent of the crop rated fair. In El Paso, TX and New Mexico, daytime highs were in the 80s and 90s. Nighttime lows were in the 50s to 70s. Partly cloudy skies and gusty winds migrated through the territory at 40 mph. NASS reported 5.5 days suitable for fieldwork in New Mexico compared to 6.9 days last year. In Texas, there were 4.0 days suitable for fieldwork compared to 4.7 days the previous year. San Joaquin Valley (SJV) Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies and demand were light. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Average local prices were lower. Foreign mill inquiries were light. In the SJV, occasional cloudiness made daily temperatures cool into the low 70s. Mostly sunny skies mid-week raised daytime highs into the triple digits. Overnight lows were in the 50s and 60s. No precipitation was recorded during the period. Field activity was underway. Producers monitored insect pressure in areas where needed. Germination was good and seedlings had begun to emerge, according to local sources. Fertilizer was applied. Upland cotton planted acres are expected to be similar to last season, according to the California Cotton Ginners and Growers Association. Cotton planted improved by 10 percent to 75 percent in California compared to 65 percent last week, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service�s (NASS) California Crop Progress report released on May 12. NASS reported 7.0 days suitable for fieldwork, which is 0.3 days ahead of five-year average. Harvesting is expected to begin in October. American Pima (AP) Spot cotton trading was inactive. Supplies were moderate. Demand was light. No forward contracting or domestic mill activity was reported. Average local spot prices were steady. Foreign mill inquiries were light. In the San Joaquin Valley (SJV), the week began with cooler temperatures in the 70s but rebounded into the low 100s by the end of the period. Nighttime lows were in the 50s and 60s. No rain was reported during the period. Pima planted acres are projected to be 35 percent less than last season in the SJV, according to the California Cotton Ginners and Growers Association. In the Desert Southwest, daily temperatures in the 80s pushed into the upper 110s late-week. Overnight lows were in the 50s to 70s. Most of the fields have been planted. In Arizona, cotton planted was 85 percent completed with 51 percent emerged, and in New Mexico 57 percent planted with 20 percent emerged, according to the National Agricultural Statistics Service�s Crop Progress report released on May 12. Later planted cotton needs more time to emerge. Trading Desert Southwest � Lots containing a heavy volume of mostly color 43 and better, leaf 5 and better, staple 35 to 39, mike 33-47, strength 30-36, and uniformity 78-82 sold for 67.00 cents per pound, FOB car/truck (compression charges not paid). � A lot containing color mostly 41 and better, leaf 6 and better, staple 33-37, mike 36-50, strength 27-33, and uniformity 78-82 sold for around 60.50 cents, same terms as above. San Joaquin Valley � No trading activity was reported. American Pima � No trading activity was reported. Percentage of Upland Cotton Planted The USDA National Agricultural Statistics Service�s Crop Progress report estimated that 28 percent of the U.S. upland cotton crop has been planted, seven percent ahead of the previous week and three percent behind the four�year average. Cotton and Wool Outlook U.S. cotton demand (mill use plus exports) is projected to increase in 2025/26 to 14.2 million bales, about 11 percent above 2024/25. U.S. cotton exports are forecast to account for the growth�contributing 88 percent of U.S. cotton demand in 2025/26�with U.S. mill use projected to remain stable at 1.7 million bales. The initial U.S. export projection for 2025/26 is 12.5 million bales, 1.4 million above the previous year and the highest in 4 years. The United States is expected to remain the second-largest exporter of raw cotton to the world. A larger U.S. supply in 2025/26, as well as expectations for a rise in global import demand, is projected to support higher U.S. cotton exports. In 2025/26, the U.S. share of global cotton trade is forecast at 28 percent, compared with the previous year�s 26 percent (figure 3). Competition from Brazil, however, is expected to limit further potential growth in U.S. cotton exports in 2025/26. With total U.S. cotton production forecast to exceed demand in 2025/26, ending stocks are projected to increase from 2024/25 to its highest level in 6 years. Cotton stocks are forecast to rise 8 percent (400,000 bales) to 5.2 million bales on July 31, 2026. However, the 2025/26 stocks-to-use ratio (37 percent) is projected to be slightly lower. Based on these initial projections, the 2025/26 U.S. upland farm price is forecast at 62 cents per pound, compared with the 2024/25 estimate of 63 cents and 2023/24�s 76.1 cents.